The Millennium Bomb, or bug as it has been renamed, is an all-encompassing technical crisis of society. It stems from the attempt to save memory on computers from the 50’s onwards and from the habit of programmers thereafter to write dates in two digits instead of four.
Many wonder if it is just an over hyped panic, which will pass almost unnoticed or as a minor inconvenience. Industry experts are now tending towards this way of thinking after predictions of crises this year failed to materialise. It is probably true that the Millennium bomb it is likely to be more selective in its impact than was initially expected.
Multinationals have spent tens of billions of US dollars correcting codes and buying new equipment to prevent general disruption to the computer systems that control their economic operations. However many of the organisations which claim to be millennium compliant are not. It is like the recent earthquake in Turkey, no buildings are allowed to be built in Turkey without being earthquake proof, but 40,000 people were buried under the rubble of these "earthquake proof" buildings. Capitalism is an anarchic system in which the profits of the companies are more important than the underlying stability of the work done. So even in the most prepared countries like Britain and the United States it is possible Millennium bomb problems will lead to a chaotic breakdown early next year.
In fact third world countries with far fewer computers may come out of the crisis more lightly that highly computerised nations.
Embedded Chips
The primary unknown factor is the impact on embedded chips, these are chips are in almost everything electronic. There are estimated to be 25 billion embedded chips in the world, around 15% of embedded chips are expected to fail at century end, so failures will affect around 3 billion chips. Now many of these will be pretty harmless, for example you may not be able to programme your Video to record in advance, or your organiser may not give the correct dates. However a number of serious breakdowns may also occur, for example in nuclear power stations, weapons systems, air traffic control systems, power supply, transportation and so on. Recent reports by the US and British government on the global situation and have warned of major disruption in many countries. The disruption could take many forms, from a run on the banks, to food shortages, power failures, water pollution, riots, strikes and so on.
It is not for us to comment on the likelihood of such crises in individual countries without a solid knowledge of the specific conditions of their computers and embedded systems, which we do not possess. What we can do is remain alert and be aware of the likely responses to various forms of Millennium bomb crises and to the action the labour movement should take in certain specific scenarios.
The Labour Movement and the Millennium Bomb
The Millennium bomb is likely to hit a diverse range of the societal infrastructure, and this will impact on trade and commerce, combine this with an already volatile stock market and you know what can happen…
Imagine the electricity supply fails as it did for ten weeks in Auckland, New Zealand last year, emergency action will be taken by the government at all levels. In most countries emergency powers are in place to maintain the economy and "social stability".
In Britain contingency plans involving all levels of government, the Territorial Army and the Royal Engineers have been prepared for such eventualities and all police leave has been cancelled over the millennium period.
Whist we have all grown used to panic and scare stories, which fail to materialise, this is one that we should take seriously. The need for the collective solution to the Millennium crises may stimulate a "war time" like collective consciousness, which will provide fertile ground for Socialist solutions in many parts of the world at the start of next year. The Gartner consultancy group who act as advisors to multinationals and the US Government recommend that everyone have cash for two weeks, pensions for one month and supplies of water, food and other essentials. We must demand wages be paid regardless of corporate failures in supply chains etc. in point of fact over the millennium period wages should be paid in advance. In many countries the Labour movement and community activists will have to collectively act to maintain, power, water, food supplies, and essential societal functions, such matters cannot be left to unelected local government officials, the army and police.
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