By Phil Mitchinson
February 29, 2000
The suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly is the latestdemonstration of the inability of capitalism to solve the nationalquestion in Ireland. Below we look at the reasons for the breakdownin the current talks, the future prospects for the IRA, theunionists, and the possibility of a socialist solution.
The streets of Belfast are newly decorated with graffiti warning"Not a bullet, not an ounce." Nailed to a wooden fence in front of agroup of smart semi-detatched houses on the Blaney Road inCrossmaglen, South Armagh is a new mural depicting three maskedparamilitaries over the words "We still haven't gone away you know."Their Armalites point to the pub 150 metres away where two Grenadierguards were shot in 1993. The painting occupies the position taken upby the sniper who shot them.
Paddy Short, uncle of Labour MP Clare Short, who runs a pub inCrossmaglen is quoted in The Express (9/2/2000) as saying, "Peopleare concerned about the IRA giving up their weapons. They don't wantto be left naked."
The IRA has refused to decommission its weapons. The devolvedassembly, the centrepiece of Blair's plans, is suspended.
Any rational person would welcome a peaceful solution to theproblems of Ireland. Such a solution is possible, but not as a resultof secret negotiations between sectarian parties and Britishimperialism. The national and social problems of Ireland cannot besolved within the confines of capitalism.
British imperialism responsible in the first place for thecriminal carving up of Ireland, and therefore directly responsiblefor the death and destruction wreaked ever since, is now powerlessagainst the sectarian monster it created.
The border imposed on society by both profit and national divisioncan only be removed by the working class. Ireland's nationalemancipation has become a task of the socialist transformation ofsociety, and the completion of that task falls to the working class.
The latest attempt at a compromise between the IRA and theunionists seemed to have gone a lot further than many previousattempts - yet still it has failed. We take no pleasure in this fact,but a fact it remains. Once again the inability of capitalism tosolve the problem of Ireland leaves catholics and protestants alikefacing an uncertain future.
The Unionists could not accept the IRA's refusal to disarm. In thewords of Ken Maginnis, Ulster Unionist security spokesman "we cannotallow to remain in existence any paramilitary group which has illegalguns or illegal explosives." Of course the Loyalist terrorists havebeen responsible for just as many atrocities themselves. TheUnionists don't have to rely on paramilitaries however, when they arebacked up by British troops and the RUC.
For the IRA to have handed over their weapons would have speltdisaster for them. Republican leader Brian Keenan described the ideaas an "unacceptable act of surrender." If they decommission then theleaders responsible stand every chance of being dead men.
Artificial deadlines
It is true that Trimble and the Unionists used the excuse of theIRA not disarming by artificial deadlines at the end of January andmid February - when the agreement talked about May as the deadlinefor decommissioning. They want a devolved assembly which they areconfident will be dominated by unionists in any event. But at thesame time they are quite happy to tolerate direct rule. They aredesperate to cling on to their privileged position. Discriminationmay now be outlawed, but Ulster Unionism remains a bastion of bigotryand reaction. They were forced to make a number of concessions, butthey will not be pushed into any move towards uniting with the south.Instead they have now forced Blair to suspend the assembly. Sinn Feinand the IRA on the other hand cannot offer any more withoutdisintegrating.
The IRA puts the blame for the breakdown on the British governmentand the unionists. Mitchell McLaughlin Sinn Fein party chairmanannounced "The British government are making a very, very seriousmistake under the blackmail of a threat to withdraw by theunionists."
The result is back to square one. In reality the establishment ofthe devolved body itself represented a capitulation by the IRA. Itwasn't even a gesture towards Irish unity. It amounts to anacceptance of British rule and an acceptance of partition.
The Protestants meanwhile will never accept any real step towardsuniting with the south on the basis of the current system. It isstill widely felt that the south remains a priest dominated state.Ireland has changed a great deal from the time when contraception wasillegal, thanks largely to the modernisation that comes withindustrialisation. As a result of British, European and USinvestment, the south is no longer poorer than the north. This partlyexplains the willingness of the southern state to relinquish itsclaim on the north, they don't want to have to foot the bill fornorthern poverty and unemployment.
The experience of discrimination against the catholic minority inthe north provides ample propaganda for the orange bigots to frightenthe protestant population with the spectre of minority status in acatholic united Ireland. Even if the border could be removed undercapitalism that would not solve unemployment, poverty or any of theproblems facing the Irish working class.
So British imperialism is stuck with the north, whether they likeit or not. The irony is that Britain would now like to withdraw. Theywould like to be shot of the £2 billion a year subsidy. Theirproblem is that the result would be a bloodbath, the catholics ofWest Belfast and Derry would face a massacre and the violence wouldnot be confined to Ireland. Sectarianism, fostered by Britishimperialism as part of its divide and rule tactic, has become anuncontrollable monster.
Division of the population
The IRA's campaign for more than 30 years far from solving one ofthe problems of Ireland has served to tear a greater divide in thepopulation and prop up the orange bigotry of the loyalist leaders.Their ceasefire was a tacit admission of the futility of theirso-called armed struggle. Initially the IRA believed they could winin 12-18 months. Yet after 30 years of bombings and assassinationsthey are now further away than ever from their stated goal. As theSDLP councillor for Irvinestown the predominantly protestant town hitby the recent Continuity IRA bomb said, "The great majority in thiscommunity know we have had this for 25 years and it has beenabsolutely wasteful."
Sinn Fein meanwhile has developed into a serious political forcedrawing support away from the timid SDLP, and more importantlypartially filling the vacuum left by the absence of a genuine workersparty, in the poisoned atmosphere of the sectarian politics ofNorthern Ireland. However, they will never be able to reconcile theprotestant population to the idea of a united Ireland on a capitalistbasis. If they based themselves on the working class instead, unitingprotestant and catholic workers in a struggle for social and nationalemancipation, then the unity of Ireland could be achieved as part ofthe socialist transformation of society. The potential for suchworkers unity is demonstrated by the trade unions. They remain theonly force organised on a non-sectarian basis. The unions mustprovide the foundation for a political expression for that unitedworking class - a party of labour. Armed with a socialist programme,such a party could win the ovewhelming support of workers from bothcommunities. Campaigning for a socialist solution to unemployment,low pay and bad housing, the working class could guarantee the rightsof the protestants in a socialist united Ireland linked to theworkers in England, Scotland and Wales.
Of course some will argue that this is utopian. This is always theargument of those who lack confidence in the ability of the workingclass to change society. Surely what is utopian is to believe thatafter centuries of raping and pillaging Ireland, capitalism can offerany new way forward. British imperialism created the mess in thefirst place, and they remain responsible for the mess today. They canplay no part in any solution. Nor can the sectarian parties ofUnionist reaction or nationalist republicanism. To achieve a peacefuland lasting solution the workers of all communities can trust only intheir own strength and their own united class organisations.
Only the Marxists have consistently argued for such a classsolution to Ireland. Various sectarian grouplets and certain lefts inthe Labour Party have wasted years instead running aroundcheerleading the IRA as "freedom fighters."
Even if the IRA were to take up the "armed struggle" again, theycould bomb and kill for another 30 years without taking a single stepcloser to victory. Individual acts of terrorism could never defeatthe armed might of the British, the RUC and the protestantparamilitaries.
From the outset it was obvious to the Ulster Unionists that it wasdifficult if not impossible for the IRA to disarm because of theinevitable division in their ranks.
United Ireland
Tragically at least a section of the IRA genuinely believe theyare struggling for the cause of a united Ireland. For them the endjustifies the means. The only problem is that their chosen means isleading them ever further away from their desired end. One of thegreat tragedies of this campaign has been the waste and ruin of ageneration of young fighters, poisoned by middle class nationalistideas, whose courage and willingness to struggle, had it beenchannelled in a socialist direction, could have brought a realsolution much closer.
The IRA's campaign of individual terrorism has all along sought tosubstitute itself for the role of the proletariat. They denied theclass question and turned instead to so-called "guerilla war"methods, so-called urban guerillaism. While guerilla struggle maystill have a role to play in more backward countries, though eventhere only as an auxilliary to the actions of the working class, inan industrialised society guerillaism has no place. It is not amethod of the working class.
30 years on with 3000 dead what exactly has this campaignachieved. A couple of ministerial portfolios for an assembly that hasbeen suspended. Adams and McGuinness wanted to transform Sinn Feininto a "normal" political party, participating in ministries etc.Instead even the meagre scraps handed to them have been taken back.Their campaign has been in vain.
Now they talk about taking the British government to the Europeancourt, they talk about the "illegal" closure of the assembly. Theyused to talk about the illegal occupation of their country. "There isno legal or other basis, except expediency, for suspension." Adamsannounced. This amounts to a kind of constitutional cretinism, fromprecisely those people who claim not to accept the constitution.
Despite all talk to the contrary, the protestants will remain themajority in the north for the foreseeable future. A million armedProtestants is a gurantee that any new talks between sectarianparties and paramilitary organisations cannot lead to a unitedIreland.
In other words the IRA have driven themselves into a cul-de-sac.Whatever they do now will be wrong. If they take to the gun againthey will be condemned by the big majority of the catholicpopulation, provoke the protestant paramilitaries and invite amassive wave of repression - in the circumstances this might evengain the tacit support of the British population. The whole ofhistory demonstrates that this is always the consequence ofindividual terrorism, it can only serve to create greater divisionand strengthen the hand of the state.
Working class alternative
The only real way out would be through the industrial andpolitical struggle of the working class uniting protestant andcatholic workers in the struggle for socialism.
Any big movement of the workers in the South or in Britain wouldhave repercussions in Ulster. Inside the labour movement we must pushfor the unions present in Northern Ireland to establish a LabourParty and break the stranglehold of sectarianism.
It is self evident that all the problems facing Irish workers areinterconnected. None of them social or political can be solved by themarket. Only an Ireland united by the struggle for socialismalongside their British and European brothers and sisters can beginto tackle all these questions. None can be solved in isolation.
Blair claimed that he had a solution. We said it couldn't work.
In fact his tinkering threatens an even worse situation in thelong run. The last two and a half years have been a temporary respitefor the people of Ireland. If the IRA returns to armed struggle theBritish government will mount a campaign of vicious repression. Thejails may be empty today but they can soon be filled again - even areturn to the monstrous policy of internment would be possible onthis basis.
Yet if they continue down the path of further talks there will befurther splits and a return to violence would still loom. In spite ofthis or that concession on cross border bodies there will be no talkof a united Ireland. A milion armed protestants is a guaranteeagainst that.
Already there are serious splinter groups in the shape ofContinuity IRA and the Real IRA. The Continuity IRA in a recentstatement announced that "We intend to continue to progress our wareffort regardless of how British rule in the six occupied counties isremodelled."
Republican dissidents
The press speculates that a group of around 100 terrorists made upof the Continuity IRA, Real IRA, the Irish National Liberation Armyalready includes new dissidents from the Provisionals. The protestantparamilitaries are heavily armed too, and they will inevitablyretaliate against any attacks by these splinters. A new round oftit-for-tat killings could even draw the Provisional IRA back intoviolence at a certain stage.
This is the edifying perspective positively encouraged byspecialists like Jonathon Stevenson of the Institutional Institutefor Strategic Studies. Writing in the Financial Times (9/2/00)Stevenson argues "the Provisional IRA, as currently constituted isplainly not about to forfeit by the end of the week the guns orexplosives that the Unionists demand. In fact, collectively they areunlikely to agree to do so ever. What is needed to break the impasse,therefore, is a split within the IRA."
How would this help? "Sinn Fein would stay in the new devolvedgovernment despite a likely revival of terrorist activity, as onedissident republican terrorist group or another gained strength"
" any fortified splinter group would have less popular supportthan the Provisionals did......With only a smaller retrograde IRArump remaining out in the political cold, security could bemaintained by vigorous policing." Not just back to square one but aworse scenario, a wave of "vigorous policing."
All capitalist paths lead to a new nightmare for the people ofIreland.
Under modern conditions there can be no solution anywhere to thenational problem. A decade ago the illusion of such solutions was allpart of the New World Order. In today's Disorder not only have thoseillusions been shattered, but new ethnic and national divisionsacross the planet are exploding to create a more turbulent anddangerous world. Today only the working class plays the progressiverole in society required to solve these problems. United by the needto struggle over social and political questions, the working classalone can provide the only realistic lasting peace in a Socialistunited Ireland linked by a free and voluntary federation to aSocialist Britain and a Socialist United States of Europe.